Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 13.024670 15.868012 19.029769 22.784592 27.099541 31.880307 37.554225
2026-01-18 9.189107 12.904129 17.484691 23.451747 30.916502 39.840509 51.200348
2026-01-25 6.656993 10.540097 15.751193 23.049547 32.780203 45.069925 61.499201
2026-02-01 5.201851 9.148952 14.843290 23.307668 35.179173 50.822857 72.522525
2026-02-08 3.989634 7.785237 13.656935 22.883560 36.432341 54.970166 81.522333
2026-02-15 3.043055 6.592797 12.473974 22.217095 37.146328 58.281286 89.431063
2026-02-22 2.560159 6.066477 12.219056 22.859691 39.725299 64.245490 101.188026
2026-03-01 2.025909 5.305799 11.433536 22.527008 40.740817 67.952787 109.872475
2026-03-08 1.653163 4.764714 10.928896 22.562571 42.272892 72.433870 119.801102
2026-03-15 1.250661 4.038763 9.950045 21.642022 42.150169 74.359069 126.001449
2026-03-22 1.076960 3.795275 9.859344 22.271744 44.592110 80.298554 138.385592
2026-03-29 0.906552 3.507375 9.626209 22.597682 46.515401 85.485094 149.795597
2026-04-05 0.754934 3.238234 9.425474 23.036110 48.793710 91.557918 163.166322
2026-04-12 0.638492 3.032424 9.335475 23.691817 51.523048 98.532666 178.298646
2026-04-19 0.489031 2.652455 8.760907 23.285159 52.277932 102.272325 188.449316
2026-04-26 0.398325 2.430670 8.524345 23.545264 54.261467 108.127143 202.165742
2026-05-03 0.301240 2.126163 8.004956 23.117744 54.887873 111.674853 212.240709
2026-05-10 0.219125 1.824270 7.415992 22.445898 54.964957 114.243185 220.763133
2026-05-17 0.185066 1.729114 7.399262 23.093682 57.690360 121.555340 237.388558
2026-05-24 0.137960 1.522586 6.994677 22.758317 58.389665 125.276169 248.088197
2026-05-31 0.106940 1.380054 6.755398 22.794167 59.843176 130.397598 261.306120
2026-06-07 0.071230 1.154997 6.170960 21.866155 59.184344 131.608771 267.835942
2026-06-14 0.059342 1.101548 6.181866 22.500989 61.917142 139.196814 285.623694